Part 3 – Region of Peel

Outlook

Over the past two years, changes in Peel’s economy have improved, particularly in the labour market where the total number of jobs lost during the recent downturn was recovered. However, the challenge is for employment growth to match the increase in the working age population, as well as the increase in residents entering the labour market in search of work. In recent years, employment growth has lagged behind resulting in a higher number of unemployed residents. Peel’s OW caseloads have remained elevated.  Over the medium term, labour market conditions are expected to improve and this should influence some stabilization and or reduction in Peel’s OW caseloads. Consistent with changes in the broader economy, the challenge going forward remains the confluence of labour market demand and labour supply. As automation become more entrenched, labour market across the globe will be challenged to ensure that its participants are prepared for and can find gainful employment.

Uncertainty will not be confined to the labour market going forward. The global economic environment has become more uncertain given expected policy shifts in major economies like the US. As a highly export oriented economy, increased protectionism would be detrimental to growth in Canada, Ontario and Peel.

Although there are broad uncertainties, Peel remains positioned for growth given:

  • Key strategic advantages: Strategic advantages in Peel such as its location in the vibrant economic hub of the GTA, close proximity to the large US market, the highly developed transportation network, and a young and educated workforce will continue to support economic growth in Peel. These are attributes that will continue to attract both residents and businesses to locate in Peel Region.
  • Diversified economic base: Peel’s economy of the future will be different from the past. With the long term trending down of traditional manufacturing activities, Peel’s more modern manufacturing sector is likely to be smaller when measured by number of businesses and workforce (employment). However, the sector is likely to be skewed towards higher value added advanced manufacturing industries that are resilient to any future economic downturn. In addition, the broader economic base is expected to be more diverse and better positioned to withstand economic shocks, should they occur in the future.
  • Continuation of a stable and positive macroeconomic environment: Price stability and the low interest rate environment which has existed in Canada over the past few years are expected to continue throughout 2017 and into 2018. This, as the thrust of monetary policies remain focused on creating an environment which is conducive to a return to robust growth.  
  • Infrastructure development: Peel remains a prime growth area in the GTA. As such, infrastructure development remains a focus. Key infrastructure projects in roads, water and waste water, transportation, as well as the recently announced investment in a university in the City of Brampton are expected to be catalysts to economic growth over the medium to long term.

Despite some challenges, Peel’s long term growth prospects remain strong

Over the long term, Peel’s economy is expected to continue to grow and become the home of an increasing number of persons and businesses(see figure 51).In this regard, the expectation is for sustained growth in population, households, businesses and employment. Peel’s population is expected to reach 1.77 million persons by 2031 and approximately 2.0 million by 2041. Employment generated in Peel is also expected to increase over the long term, to reach approximately 875,000 by 2031 and 965,000 by 2041(see figure 52).To accommodate these increases, Peel’s construction sector is expected to remain a key area of economic growth during the same period.

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