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A myriad of factors influenced less positive changes in some indicators in Q4 2017

Residential Resale Market

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Data source – Toronto Real Estate Board

  • In 2017, the total number of  units sold in Peel’s residential resale market was 18,495.
  • This was 21.9 per cent below the 23,673 units sold in 2016 and was the first fall in residential resale activities in Peel in four years.
  • This decline came against the backdrop of policy changes in the Ontario housing market, as well as changes in the Canadian macroeconomic environment.
    • Changes in Ontario’s housing market: In April, new measures were introduced by the government of Ontario to reduce the observed risks in, and increase the stability of Ontario’s housing market. The measures included the introduction of a 15.0 per-cent “Non-Resident Speculation Tax” in the Greater Golden Horseshoe Region. A review of rules that allowed scalping was also announced.
    • Canadian macroeconomic environment: The economic performance of the Canadian economy improved in 2017 and as a result, interest rates started trending upwards. The Bank of Canada overnight interest rates started trending upwards in mid-2017, after remaining the same since July 2015.
  • The performance of the market mimicked key changes in the housing market.
  • Conditions in Peel’s residential resale market were positive during the first three months of 2017 when the number of units sold registered monthly increases and contributed to a 4.4 per cent increase in units sold for the January – March quarter.
  • However, beginning April 2017, activities in Peel’s residential resale market slowed considerably and contributed to declines in sales in all succeeding quarters.
  • In response, monthly changes (on a year-over-year basis) turned negative in April and remained negative through to September.
  • When compared with the similar periods of 2016, the monthly changes between April and September 2017 were as shown below:
    • April: -3.6 per cent;
    • May: -21.5 per cent;
    • June: -39.4 per cent;
    • July: -40.8 per cent;
    • August: -39.7 per cent;
    • September: -37.9 per cent,
    • October: -29.2%
    • November: -1.8%
    • December: -13.5%
  • The declines observed between April and December 2017 influenced the fall in housing resale activities in Peel for the nine-month period April – September 2017.
  • For the first time in almost a decade (since 22008), the decline in the number of units sold in 2017 occurred in all three Peel municipalities.
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Data source – Toronto Real Estate Board
  • A total of 9,269 residential resale units were sold in the City of Mississauga, down 20.0 per cent.
  • In the City of Brampton, the total number of resale residential units also fell by 20.0 per cent to 8,771 units.
  • In the Town of Caledon total sales fell by 19.6 per cent from 1,125 units in 2016 to 905 units in 2017.
  • Similar changes were also observed in the market of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in 2017 when the number of residential resale units sold declined 18.3 per cent from 113,133 units in 2016 to 92,394 units in 2017.
  • The decline in sales commenced in April 2017 and remained negative for the remainder of the year, underpinning the fall in sales for the full year.
  • While the number of units sold fell after the introduction of new measures in the housing market in April 2017, the changes in average prices of a residential housing units in the GTA and in Peel remained positive throughout the period.
  • In Peel, the average prices of a residential resale in all three Peel municipalities registered relatively robust price increases as follows:
    • The Town of Caledon: $951,501, up 19.1 per cent;
    • The City of Mississauga: $721,952, up 14.9 per cent; and
    • The City of Brampton: $699,295, up 19.6 per cent.
  • The average price of a resale unit sold in the GTA stood at approximately $822,700 in 2017.
  • This represented a 12.7 per cent increase relative to the average price registered a year earlier.
  • Prices were higher in all GTA regions with growth ranging from 17.6 per cent in Durham Region to 12.1 per cent in York Region.
  • The highest average price was recorded in York Region at $1,058,618; the only GTA region where the average price was above $1 million.
  • Average price in Peel Region remained one of the most price competitive at $722,428, up 17.2 per cent.
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Data source – Toronto Real Estate Board